We'll talk more this weekend but I want to get this posted. I'll be applauding loudly when The Artist wins. Everyone always complains that Oscar doesn't appreciate comedies and then when they do, everyone always screams "trifle!" with holier than thou disgust; the Academy can't win! But this (presumed) winner is a beauty. All twinkly-eyed, big hearted and (mostly) light on its feet. The only real question seems to be how many Oscars will it win. I'm guessing seven... though three of those guesses are easy to see flopping (Actor, Costumes, Cinematography). I don't see it any scenario where it wins Art Direction, Supporting Actress or Screenplay so I'm guessing seven is the maximum. Since you can make such a viable argument for literally any of the five nominees to win Costume Design, I'm guessing the showiness / baitiness of all of them will tip things ever so slightly into the Artist column, which is also I think what's going in Cinematography. I just can't quite believe that "El Chivo" will finally win the gold he's deserved for so long (the latest chance being with The Tree of Life). I've highlighted the true nailbiter categories in red; if you get them right you win the Office Pool.
Best Picture
Will Win: The Artist
Spoiler: The Descendants and The Help are the only films with spoiler heat but even if you try and talk yourself into them, you think you're lying right?
Should Win: Haters gon' hate but The Artist is a beautiful funny rare gift.
Best Director
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Spoiler: Martin Scorsese started precursor season strong with Hugo but the movie has been cooling so I have to wonder if it isn't Alexander Payne in second position for The Descendants
Should Win: I'll clap loudly for Hazanavicius but if they decide not to give the Artist everything, a surprise career win for Terrence Malick would be delicious